Scientists Warn Climate Change is Threatening World’s Most Expansive Temperate Rainforests
For Immediate Release on February 26, 2015
Contact: Dominick A. DellaSala, Ph.D.; Cell: 541-621-7223
Ashland, Oregon – International climate change and rainforest experts warned that without drastic and immediate cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and new forest protections, the world’s most expansive stretch of temperate rainforests from Alaska to the coast redwoods will experience irreparable losses.
Using global climate models, researchers assessed changes in temperature and precipitation from recent to future climatic conditions projected toward the end of the century if emissions from burning fossil fuels and deforestation continue to rise.
According to the lead researcher, Dr. Dominick A. DellaSala, Chief Scientist of Geos Institute, “In the Pacific Northwest, the glass is half empty as the climate may no longer support rainforest communities like coast redwood, while on the Tongass National Forest in southeast Alaska the glass is half full as cooler, moister conditions may prevail as a refuge for rainforest communities that can migrate in time.”
Applied climate models predicted the future distribution of eight rainforest conifers of commercial value and broad rainforest communities across a 2,200-mile stretch of coastal rainforests in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and Alaska. Published by Science Direct in the online global reference “Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences,” key findings include:
- Coast redwood could lose up to 23% of its current distribution as the climate changes more drastically in the southern rainforest region.
- Alaska yellow-cedar could lose up to 21% of its current distribution and already is experiencing extensive dieback from warming and reduced snow pack.
- Entire rainforest communities in southern Oregon and northern California may contract, while in southeast Alaska and British Columbia rainforests may expand upward in elevation as glaciers recede.
- Most of the region’s parks and wilderness areas do not include localized pockets of relatively stable vegetation and climate suitable for rainforest species to find refuge from a warming climate.
Dr. Marni Koopman, Climate Change Scientist, Geos Institute, stated, “Our results provide the first comprehensive assessment of climate change shifts likely to affect commercially valuable conifers and rainforest communities across two countries (US and Canada) and four states (Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California).”
The study concluded that there is still time to act by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting rainforest vegetation. Priority areas include north-facing slopes with older forests in the Pacific Northwest, which are likely to maintain cooler conditions in a warmer and drier climate, and extensive old-growth rainforests on the Tongass National Forest where rainforest communities could find refuge despite declines in some species (e.g., yellow-cedar).
DellaSala added, “The Tongass is our best hope for holding onto the verdant rainforest web-of-life that has sustained native peoples for millennia and supported the subsistence economy of southeast Alaska but only if the old-growth forests are protected for their climate and wildlife benefits.”
Dr. Patric Brandt of the Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which specializes in global warming research, participated in the study, adding, “We know from studies around the world that if rainforests are stressed by the combined impacts of climate change and land-disturbances, there is little hope in maintaining their ecosystem benefits for people or wildlife over the long term.”
North Pacific coastal rainforests represent 35% of the world’s total temperate rainforests. Globally, most of Europe’s temperate rainforests and the coast redwoods are already gone due to logging and development, while temperate rainforests on the Tongass and Great Bear (British Columbia), Tasmania, Russia, and Chile remain relatively intact.
The impacts of human-caused climate change are scientifically indisputable and Alaska is already experiencing some of the most rapid and severe changes in the world. During the past thirty years, Alaska has experienced sharp reductions in snow-cover, shorter river- and lake-ice seasons, melting glaciers, sea-ice and permafrost retreat, increased depth of summer thaw, and displacement of aboriginal villages from traditional lands. Actions taken now should explicitly address such issues to avoid exacerbating consequences for Alaska’s natural resource-based economies as temperatures are projected to increase by another 4 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit by mid-century.
Read the study abstract.
Additional information on temperate rainforests.
Join the Cornerstone Network
Sign up with a monthly donation and become part of our Cornerstone Network. Network members recieve the messages posted here first, delivered directly to your inbox. Your ongoing support is the foundation of our work.
Samantha Medlock is President of Climate Risk Advisors, helping communities and organizations advance equity, sustainability, and resilience. Her career began chasing floods as a local official in Texas Flash Flood Alley—a hands-on experience that still shapes her approach to climate and disaster risk management.
Arsum is the Senior Adaptation and Coastal Resilience Specialist for the National Wildlife Federation’s Southcentral Region. In this role, she advances climate adaptation efforts, with a focus on nature-based approaches to address the impacts of climate change and extreme events across the Gulf region. She has authored and co-authored numerous publications on climate impact assessments and adaptation solutions. Additionally, she regularly participates in state-based coastal resilience and hazard mitigation planning across the Gulf, collaborating with regional and local stakeholders.
Frank is the former President of the Reinsurance Association of America. Frank currently serves on the Advisory Board of the OECD’s International Network for the Financial Management of Large-Scale Disasters, the RAND Center on Catastrophic Risk Management and Compensation, and the University of Cincinnati’s Carl H. Lindner III Center for Insurance and Risk Management Advisory Board.
Jim is a multilingual world traveler. Based in Bavaria during the 1970s, Jim spent most of this period in India, Afghanistan and Nepal, where he founded and operated a charitable medical clinic serving Tibetan Refugees. He settled in Oregon in 1983 on a forested ranch in the Umpqua National Forest.
Dr. Micah Hahn is an Associate Professor of Environmental Health in the Institute for Circumpolar Health Studies at the University of Alaska-Anchorage. She received her joint PhD in Epidemiology / Environment and Resources from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and her MPH in Global Environmental Health from Emory University. Subsequently, she was a postdoctoral fellow for the CDC Climate and Health Program, and in this position worked collaboratively with the CDC Division of Vector-borne Diseases and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Her research focuses on understanding the health impacts of climate change and working with communities to develop locally-relevant adaptation and resilience-building strategies. Dr. Hahn is also on the Management Team of the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center.
Michael is a former Founding Principal of Resilient Cities Catalyst, a global non-profit helping cities and their partners tackle their toughest challenges. He is currently the Executive Director of Climate Resilience Academy at the University of Miami.
Dr. Quintus Jett is a consultant, educator, and strategist for public causes. He has a doctorate in Organizations & Management from Stanford University, and a two-decade faculty career which spans schools, departments, and programs of business, engineering, liberal studies, divinity, and public and nonprofit management. Following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Dr. Jett launched a volunteer project in New Orleans, which enlisted residents, students from over a dozen colleges and universities, and hundreds of others to field map the city’s Gentilly district, Lower Ninth Ward, and New Orleans East. Dr. Jett is an innovator in higher education, bridging the divide between academic research and the other priorities of the modern university, including student access and diversity, community engagement, and providing foundations for life-long learning in today’s rapidly changing world.
Scott is Monfort Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. He has written about 100 publications in the peer-reviewed climate literature, is a former editor of the Journal of Climate, and served for five years as founding Science Chair of the North American Carbon Program.
Linda has many years of experience in disaster preparedness and resilience. She has been an elected official on the Linn County Iowa Board of Supervisors, Chair of the Metropolitan Planning Organization, the East Central Iowa Council of Governments, the statewide Mental Health Developmental Disability and the Linn County Board of Health. Langston is a former president of the National Association of Counties (2013-2014).
Ken works with families and organizations as a mediator, organizational consultant, trainer and facilitator. Along with his passion for helping people prepare for and reduce climate change, Ken also volunteers as a mediator through Mediation Works and is passionate about supporting youth through mentoring with Boys to Men of Southern Oregon.
Matthew is a retired high school teacher who was once honored as Oregon High School Social Studies Teacher of the Year. Before his teaching career he was in the restaurant business in Portland. He is also a lawyer who has been a member of the Oregon State Bar Association since 1980.
Andrea is the Resilience Policy Advisor for the North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency. She works across state agencies and with local governments to increase the state’s resilience to the impacts of climate change.