Scientists Call on Pres. Obama to Include Tongass in Climate Change Talks
Contact: Dominick DellaSala (541/621-7223; dominick@geosinstitute.org)
Ashland, OR – Alaska’s Tongass rainforest may fair better in a changing climate than more southerly rainforest locales, according to a new study published in an online reference module “Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences” by Elsevier, a world-leading provider of scientific, technical and medical information products and services.
The release of the study coincides with President Barack Obama’s visit with the Arctic Council in Anchorage in advance of the United Nations climate talks. It follows a letter sent in April 2015 to the White House by hundreds of scientists calling on President Obama to speed the transition out of old-growth logging on the Tongass to preserve the rainforest’s unique climate and wildlife benefits.
Using global climate change models, an international team of scientists compared changes in temperature and precipitation anticipated near the end of the century across a vast coastal region of 1,800 miles from California’s coast redwoods to Alaska’s Tongass rainforest. They then related those changes to the climate conditions preferred by conifer species of commercial value and to temperate rainforest plant communities. Eleven scientists, including two from Germany, one each from Austria, Kenya, Canada, and Alaska, and five from the Pacific Northwest participated in the study.
According to Dominick A. DellaSala, chief scientist of the Geos Institute in Ashland, Oregon and lead scientist on the study, “For the first time, we can see how the Tongass uniquely possesses climate assets such as its pristine old-growth rainforests and a cool maritime climate that may provide rainforest species with a critical refuge from more extreme changes to rainforests anticipated to the south.”
In order to predict potential changes in rainforest species, scientists applied global climate change models from Alaska to California under the assumption of continued growth in global warming emissions. They analyzed 19 climatic variables and compared baseline climate conditions (1950–2000) to two future climate periods (2050s, 2080s).
Anticipated Changes to Rainforest Plant Communities (by the 2080s):
- Northerly locales are expected to experience greater precipitation and warming compared to drier conditions south.
- Southerly regions, where logging has greatly degraded forests, are more vulnerable to climate change and land disturbances than northerly locales where vast forested tracts remain and coastal climates provide refuge.
- Northern rainforest regions are expected to retain climate suitable for rainforest vegetation, while rainforest vegetation southward may lose preferred climate.
- Localized climate changes are likely to harm rainforest vegetation even in the north such as the Kenai Peninsula, portions of the Queen Charlotte and Haida Gwaii islands, and much of the mid and southern British Columbia coastline.
- The climate currently supporting subalpine (high-elevation) forest is expected to shift toward conditions more suitable for lower-elevation forests.
Anticipated Changes to Rainforest Conifers of Commercial Importance:
- Rainforest conifer species are expected to lose vital climate conditions and habitat southward and expand north and upward in elevation as glaciers recede; this will affect future forest management.
- Pacific silver fir, grand fir, Alaska yellow-cedar, and mountain hemlock may experience substantial climate-related losses. Prior studies have shown yellow-cedar declining due to reduced snow cover and late-winter freeze affecting the upper root zone.
- Western red cedar, Sitka spruce, and western hemlock may persist mainly in northern areas with minor losses in the south.
- Coast redwood is expected to lose nearly one-fourth of its climate by 2080 and already is experiencing declining fog levels needed to sustain redwood growth.
DellaSala added, “hundreds of scientists are asking President Obama to speed up the transition out of old-growth logging on the Tongass to save its unique climate, salmon, and wildlife assets. The Tongass should be featured among the nation’s first line of global warming defense and the Obama Administration’s international commitments to end global deforestation and forestall a pending climate change crisis.”
The Tongass National Forest is currently analyzing alternatives to amend the forest plan based on the Obama Administration’s interest in transitioning out of old-growth logging with a draft environmental impact statement anticipated this fall. The U.S. was among 157 signatories of the non-binding NY Forest Declaration, which pledged to slow global deforestation by 2020 and end it by 2030. The Tongass is the nation’s largest national forest.
Listen to the first of two 10-minute KINY radio inrterviews with Dominick DellaSala on Aug. 31, 2015.
Listen to the second of two 10-minute KINY radio interviews on Aug. 31, 2015.
Join the Cornerstone Network
Sign up with a monthly donation and become part of our Cornerstone Network. Network members recieve the messages posted here first, delivered directly to your inbox. Your ongoing support is the foundation of our work.
Samantha Medlock is President of Climate Risk Advisors, helping communities and organizations advance equity, sustainability, and resilience. Her career began chasing floods as a local official in Texas Flash Flood Alley—a hands-on experience that still shapes her approach to climate and disaster risk management.
Arsum is the Senior Adaptation and Coastal Resilience Specialist for the National Wildlife Federation’s Southcentral Region. In this role, she advances climate adaptation efforts, with a focus on nature-based approaches to address the impacts of climate change and extreme events across the Gulf region. She has authored and co-authored numerous publications on climate impact assessments and adaptation solutions. Additionally, she regularly participates in state-based coastal resilience and hazard mitigation planning across the Gulf, collaborating with regional and local stakeholders.
Frank is the former President of the Reinsurance Association of America. Frank currently serves on the Advisory Board of the OECD’s International Network for the Financial Management of Large-Scale Disasters, the RAND Center on Catastrophic Risk Management and Compensation, and the University of Cincinnati’s Carl H. Lindner III Center for Insurance and Risk Management Advisory Board.
Jim is a multilingual world traveler. Based in Bavaria during the 1970s, Jim spent most of this period in India, Afghanistan and Nepal, where he founded and operated a charitable medical clinic serving Tibetan Refugees. He settled in Oregon in 1983 on a forested ranch in the Umpqua National Forest.
Dr. Micah Hahn is an Associate Professor of Environmental Health in the Institute for Circumpolar Health Studies at the University of Alaska-Anchorage. She received her joint PhD in Epidemiology / Environment and Resources from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and her MPH in Global Environmental Health from Emory University. Subsequently, she was a postdoctoral fellow for the CDC Climate and Health Program, and in this position worked collaboratively with the CDC Division of Vector-borne Diseases and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Her research focuses on understanding the health impacts of climate change and working with communities to develop locally-relevant adaptation and resilience-building strategies. Dr. Hahn is also on the Management Team of the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center.
Michael is a former Founding Principal of Resilient Cities Catalyst, a global non-profit helping cities and their partners tackle their toughest challenges. He is currently the Executive Director of Climate Resilience Academy at the University of Miami.
Dr. Quintus Jett is a consultant, educator, and strategist for public causes. He has a doctorate in Organizations & Management from Stanford University, and a two-decade faculty career which spans schools, departments, and programs of business, engineering, liberal studies, divinity, and public and nonprofit management. Following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Dr. Jett launched a volunteer project in New Orleans, which enlisted residents, students from over a dozen colleges and universities, and hundreds of others to field map the city’s Gentilly district, Lower Ninth Ward, and New Orleans East. Dr. Jett is an innovator in higher education, bridging the divide between academic research and the other priorities of the modern university, including student access and diversity, community engagement, and providing foundations for life-long learning in today’s rapidly changing world.
Scott is Monfort Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. He has written about 100 publications in the peer-reviewed climate literature, is a former editor of the Journal of Climate, and served for five years as founding Science Chair of the North American Carbon Program.
Linda has many years of experience in disaster preparedness and resilience. She has been an elected official on the Linn County Iowa Board of Supervisors, Chair of the Metropolitan Planning Organization, the East Central Iowa Council of Governments, the statewide Mental Health Developmental Disability and the Linn County Board of Health. Langston is a former president of the National Association of Counties (2013-2014).
Ken works with families and organizations as a mediator, organizational consultant, trainer and facilitator. Along with his passion for helping people prepare for and reduce climate change, Ken also volunteers as a mediator through Mediation Works and is passionate about supporting youth through mentoring with Boys to Men of Southern Oregon.
Matthew is a retired high school teacher who was once honored as Oregon High School Social Studies Teacher of the Year. Before his teaching career he was in the restaurant business in Portland. He is also a lawyer who has been a member of the Oregon State Bar Association since 1980.
Andrea is the Resilience Policy Advisor for the North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency. She works across state agencies and with local governments to increase the state’s resilience to the impacts of climate change.